A player prop hit rate is the share of past games in which a player cleared a prop line: over 4.5 assists in 7 of the last 10 games is a 70% hit rate. It describes what already happened, not the chance of clearing the line in the next game. To use one, compare it with the break-even rate of the price, then adjust for sample size, role, minutes, matchup and injuries.
How it works
Two numbers matter: how often the player cleared the line, and how often the bet has to win to break even at the price.
hit rate = games over the line ÷ games in the window
break-even rate = odds ÷ (odds + 100) for minus odds (drop the minus sign), or 100 ÷ (odds + 100) for plus odds
Worked example
A hypothetical guard went over 4.5 assists in 7 of their last 10 games, and the over is priced at −150.
- Hit rate: 7 ÷ 10 = 70%.
- Break-even rate of −150: 150 ÷ 250 = 60%. The bet has to win 60% of the time just to break even.
- The gap: 70% − 60% = 10 points in the hit rate's favor.
- If 70% were the true chance, the expected return would be 0.70 × 1.667 − 1 = +16.7%, since −150 pays 1.667 in decimal odds. At exactly 60%, it would be 0%.
Now the catch: 10 games is a small sample. One game the other way turns 7 of 10 into 6 of 10, which is 60%, exactly break-even. The 10-point gap is a reason to look closer, not a reason to bet.
The price matters as much as the hit rate. A 40% hit rate (4 of 10) at +200 sits about 7 points above its 33.3% break-even rate. A 70% hit rate at −250 sits about 1.4 points below its 71.4% break-even rate. The lower hit rate is the better-priced bet.
How to use hit rates
To do it by hand:
- Count games at the exact line. Pull the game log and count the games over the line you're betting. Over 4.5 and over 5.5 can give very different numbers from the same games.
- Convert the price. Turn the odds into a break-even rate with the Implied Probability calculator. Shop books for the best price, since a better price lowers the bar.
- Compare windows. Look at the last 5, last 10, last 20 and the season. When they disagree, find out why instead of picking the one you like.
- Check the context.
- Sample size: in a 5-game window, each game moves the hit rate 20 points.
- Role and minutes: a new starter, a bench role or a minutes limit makes older games less relevant.
- Injuries: a teammate out can raise a player's usage, and a player back from injury may be limited.
- Matchup: some defenses give up far more to one position. Defense vs position shows how much.
- Make your own estimate. Start from the hit rate, pull it toward the season number when the window is short, and bet only when your estimate clears the break-even rate.
On Unjuiced, Hit Rates does the counting for every player prop at today's line. Each row shows the last 10 games as bars against the line, the current streak, the L5, L10, L20 and season hit rates, and the best over and under price, so the hit rate and the price sit side by side. Press a price to see every book at that line and the alt lines. Open the player page for the matchup, the player's role and the full game log.
For the NBA and WNBA, the Hit Rate Matrix shows the hit rate at every line on the ladder (5+, 10+, 15+ and up), with the book's line marked and each line's own price. Thin samples are shown, not hidden: a row with fewer than 10 games in the window prints its game count, so you can see when a big number rests on a few games.
For the full board, read how to use Hit Rates or see what Hit Rates includes.
Mistakes to avoid
- Treating a hit rate as a probability. It counts past games. The next game has its own minutes, matchup and line.
- Ignoring the price. A 70% hit rate at −250 is below the 71.4% break-even rate. The number only means something next to the odds.
- Trusting small samples. Five of five is 100% and still only five games. A streak feels strong and carries little weight on its own.
- Counting the same games twice. The last 5 games sit inside the last 10, and the last 10 sit inside the last 20. Agreement between windows isn't independent confirmation.
- Using the wrong line. A hit rate at 4.5 tells you little about 5.5. Check the exact line at your book, including whole-number lines that can push.
- Confusing the average with the hit rate. A few big games can lift an average well above the line while most games still fall short.
- Missing a role change. A trade, a teammate's injury or a new coach can make last month's numbers stale.
Questions
What is a player prop hit rate?
A player prop hit rate is the percentage of games in a window, such as the last 10, in which a player went over a prop line. It shows how often something happened, not the probability that it happens in the next game.
What is a good hit rate for player props?
There is no single number. A hit rate is only good relative to the price: it should sit clearly above the break-even rate of the odds, over enough games to trust. A 60% hit rate is above the 50% break-even rate at +100 but below the 66.7% break-even rate at −200.
How many games should a hit rate be based on?
More games give a steadier number, as long as they reflect the player's current role. Over 5 games each game moves the hit rate 20 points, and over 10 games each one moves it 10, so read short windows alongside the last 20 games and the season.
Do hit rates predict the next game?
No. A hit rate is history, and it can't account for tonight's minutes, matchup, injuries or line. Use it as a starting point, adjust for that context, and compare your estimate with the break-even rate of the price.
How do I compare a hit rate with the odds?
Convert the odds to implied probability, which is the win rate a bet needs to break even: −150 needs 60% and +120 needs 45.5%. If the hit rate, adjusted for context, sits clearly above that number, the prop is worth a closer look.