Betting Guides
The math and methods behind sharper betting, in plain English: EV, the vig, arbitrage, Kelly, CLV.
9 articles
How to follow sharp sports bettors on PolymarketPolymarket wallets are public, so a sharp bettor's trades and results can be graded. Follow them by their record, then compare today's price with their entry.How to remove the vig: no-vig fair odds explainedTo remove the vig, convert both sides' odds to implied probabilities, divide each by their total so they add up to 100%, then convert back to fair odds.How to use player prop hit ratesA hit rate is the share of past games a player cleared a prop line. Compare it with the price's break-even rate, then check sample size and role.Line shopping: why the best price mattersLine shopping means comparing sportsbooks and betting where the same bet pays most. A better price lowers the win rate you need to break even on every bet.Sports betting arbitrage: how arbs workSports betting arbitrage is betting both sides at two books whose prices disagree enough to pay out either way, if both bets stand at those prices.The Kelly criterion for sports bettingThe Kelly criterion sizes a bet as a share of your bankroll from your edge and the odds. Most bettors stake a half or a quarter of it to absorb estimate error.What are soft lines in sports betting?A soft line is a sportsbook price that pays more than the market's fair price, usually at a book that is slow to move or prices a market loosely.What is CLV (closing line value)?Closing line value (CLV) compares the price you bet with the market's final no-vig price before the game. Beating it often is the clearest sign of an edge.What is positive EV betting?Positive EV betting means taking prices that pay more than an outcome's fair odds, so each bet is estimated to return a profit on average over many bets.