Open the Hit Rate Matrix for the NBA or the WNBA. Most tools tell you how often a player cleared tonight's line. The matrix shows every line on the ladder at once: 5+, 10+, 15+ points and so on. That's useful when you like a player but want a safer or bigger number than the main line, which books call alternate lines.
Reading a row
- Each cell has a line on top (25+) and, under it, how often the player reached at least that many in the window. 25+ · 70 means 25 or more points in 70% of the last 10 games.
- The tick above the row marks where the book's main line falls on the ladder.
- On the right is the book's main line (o31.5 book's line) and its best over price.
- Hover a cell to see that line's own price. Each step is priced as its own over: 25+ is priced as over 24.5, never borrowed from a nearby line.
The colors run from deep green (75% and up) through plain (50%+) to deep red (under 35%). A line the player never reached prints a faint 0.
Your first five minutes
- Pick the stat. Points, Rebounds, Assists, Threes and PRA are along the top. More markets has the rest.
- Pick the window. Last 10 is the default. Switch to Last 5, Last 20 or the full Season.
- Narrow it. All games picks tonight's games, Find a player searches, and Filters holds the rest.
- Scan for green past the tick. A green cell to the right of the tick is a higher line the player has still been clearing often.
- Open a player. Click a row to open the panel: every line's price at each book, and the games behind the numbers.
Ladder thinking, in plain terms
Say a player's book line is 27.5 points and the row reads 25+ · 80, 30+ · 60, 35+ · 20.
- A lower line (25+) hits more often but pays less.
- A higher line (30+, 35+) pays more but hits less.
The matrix doesn't tell you which is the better bet. It tells you how often each one happened. Compare that to the price: if a line hit 60% of the time and pays +150 (which implies 40%), that's worth a closer look. If it pays -200 (67%), it isn't.
Read it carefully
- The same games, different questions. A 100% at 15+ and a 20% at 35+ come from the same 10 games. They're not separate pieces of evidence.
- Small samples. A row with fewer than 10 games in the window prints its count next to the matchup. Five perfect games is not a sure thing.
- The role can change. A new teammate, an injury or a coaching change can make last month's numbers stale. Check Injury impact on NBA nights.
Troubleshooting
- No prices: books haven't posted lines yet, or not for that player. In the NBA preseason most rows have no price.
- A cell is missing: the player doesn't have enough games, or no book offers that line. That isn't a 0% chance.
- Whole-number lines: a book's line on a whole number (25 instead of 24.5) can push. Check the exact market at your book.