Implied probability calculator
Translate a sportsbook price into the win rate required to break even.
40.0%
+150 needs to win 40.0% of the time to break even.
- Decimal odds
- 2.500
- Profit on a win
- $150.00
- Total payout
- $250.00
The implied chance includes the book's margin. No-vig fair odds takes it out.
How to use the implied probability calculator
Implied probability turns a betting price into the minimum win rate needed to break even. It makes prices easier to compare with your own estimate of an outcome.
- 1Choose American or decimal odds.
- 2Enter the price offered by the sportsbook.
- 3Compare the implied break-even rate with your projected win probability.
Formula and assumptions
Decimal odds: probability = 1 / decimal odds. American odds use separate formulas for positive and negative prices.
A sportsbook price usually includes margin, so implied probabilities across every outcome can add up to more than 100%.
The math in full, with worked examples: Line shopping: why the best price matters
Questions
Answers about this free implied probability calculator, sports betting odds, payouts, and the math behind each result.
- It is the break-even win rate represented by a betting price, before accounting for your own edge or the sportsbook margin.
- Yes, a single sportsbook price normally includes vig. Use the no-vig calculator to estimate fair probabilities across a complete market.