UnjuicedExpected Value Calculator
Put a dollar value on your edge using stake, offered odds, and your fair win probability.
Your edge
Long-run value
Expected value
$26.00
Expected ROI
26.00%
Profit on a win
$110.00
Expected value is an average over many similar bets. A positive EV bet can still lose today.
How to use the Expected Value
Expected value estimates the average result of repeatedly placing the same bet at the same price. Positive EV means your estimated win rate clears the break-even rate.
- 1Enter the offered odds and your stake.
- 2Add your fair estimate of the outcome's win probability.
- 3Review expected profit and ROI before deciding whether the edge is meaningful.
Formula and assumptions
EV = win probability × profit when winning - loss probability × stake.
The output is only as reliable as your projected probability. It does not account for limits, price movement, or estimation error.
Expected Value calculator FAQ
Answers about this free expected value calculator, sports betting odds, payouts, and the math behind each result.
What is a positive EV bet?
It is a wager where your estimated probability produces a positive average return at the price offered.
Does positive EV guarantee a win?
No. Expected value describes a long-run average, while any single wager can still win or lose.