Positive EV compares an available price with an estimated fair probability derived from a reference market. A positive result means the calculation estimates a positive average return if its probability and execution assumptions are correct.
Set up the scanner
The toolbar has two rows.
- Top row: Pregame or Live (Live is on Pro), refresh, search, Boost, Table or Cards, and reset.
- Second row: Filters, All, Game or Player, then League, Markets, Books and Comparing, your applied filters as chips, and Sort.
- Pick the leagues, markets and books you want.
- Check Comparing. It sets the fair price the EV is measured against. Custom models live in Comparing too.
- Open Filters (or press F) for minimum EV, odds bounds, the date, and your bet sizing.
- Sort by EV %, Game time or Kelly stake.
- Press a row to open it in the side panel.
- Check the price at the book before you bet or track it.
Boost applies a profit boost at the book you pick, so you can see what the boost does to EV.
How the calculation works
The scanner uses both sides of a reference market, removes the embedded margin using the selected method, and compares the resulting probability estimate with the offered odds. Removing margin is called devigging. It produces an estimate, not direct knowledge of the true outcome probability.
For decimal odds d and estimated probability p, expected return per dollar is p × d − 1. Multiply by 100 for EV%.
Worked example: a hypothetical market is estimated at a 50% chance and is offered at +110 (decimal 2.10). The estimate is 0.50 × 2.10 − 1 = 0.05, or 5% EV. For a hypothetical $100 stake, that is $5 expected profit across the modeled distribution, not $5 profit on this individual bet. The bet still either wins or loses under its settlement rules.
The side panel
Press a row to open it beside the list (a sheet on a phone):
- Both sides at every book: each book's price on both sides, best first. A book the fair price comes from is tagged.
- Movement: how the price moved over 1h, 6h, 24h or since open, with Full history for more. Movement is on Pro.
- Fair and EV: the fair price, the EV, the implied chance, the market's hold and your stake.
- Limits: what the book or the reference market will take, where we know it.
The panel's footnote names the source of the fair price.
Understand each output
| Output | Read it as |
|---|---|
| EV % | Estimated return on your stake at the displayed price |
| Best book | The book and price highlighted for this selection |
| Fair | The estimated no-margin price, not a price a book promises |
| Kelly stake | A stake from the bankroll and Kelly percent you saved in Settings |
| Limit | What the named book or market will take; check its label |
EV % is not a win chance. A long shot can have positive EV at a high enough price. A likely winner can have negative EV at a poor price.
Notify me
Notify me in the header turns your current filters into an alert rule. See alerts.
Models and sensitivity
Where custom models are available, check the selected reference books and devig methods before comparing outputs. The same offer can look different under different reference assumptions. Running more models does not turn repeated rows into independent evidence.
Test sensitivity: if a small change in the probability estimate removes the edge, the decision depends heavily on that estimate. In the example above, a 47% estimate at +110 gives approximately −1.3% EV, rather than +5%.
Sizing and tracking
Kelly output is conditional on model accuracy and your saved bankroll/settings. It is not an instruction to use the entire displayed amount. It also does not account for every personal constraint or the combined exposure of correlated selections. Check the inputs rather than treating a large suggested stake as confirmation of quality.
Record your actual accepted price. If the quote moves, recalculate; an old positive result does not carry over automatically. Review closing-price comparisons alongside results and their sample sizes, without treating either as proof of future returns.
Troubleshooting
- An opportunity vanished: either offered odds or reference odds may have moved, or the game/filter eligibility changed.
- No results: check books, markets, odds bounds, minimum EV, and model availability.
- A very large EV%: check the exact line, market rules, and current quote before accepting the estimate.
- A missing limit: unknown size is not unlimited size.
- The book accepts less: use the accepted amount and price; a reference limit does not override your account's limit.