Open First Move. Sharp books like Pinnacle, and FanDuel on player props, tend to set the price. When one of them moves, the other books usually follow, but not all at once. Until they catch up, some books still pay the old price, and that gap is your edge.
A play shows up in First Move the moment a sharp book moves and other books haven't. It stays until they catch up. Your job is to bet it before they do.
Read a row
Each row is one play. Hover almost anything for a plain-English tip.
| Column | What it shows |
|---|---|
| EV | Expected value: how much this price pays above our fair odds, per dollar bet. Green means positive. |
| The bet | The pick, then the market and the game. A New tag means the play showed up in the last two minutes. |
| What moved | The sharp book that moved first, with its old price and its new price. The chip beside it is the size of the move, in points of implied probability. |
| Fair | Our no-vig price from the sharp books. |
| Where to bet | The book still paying the old price. The dollar figure next to it is a suggested stake: your Kelly fraction from your Positive EV settings (a quarter Kelly by default), capped at 2.5% of your bankroll. |
Small icons under the EV add context:
- Lightning bolt (Strong): a second sharp book confirmed the move, or it moved 3 or more points. Hover the bolt to see which.
- Moving: the move just happened and hasn't held for 30 seconds yet. If it holds, the play firms up in place. If the price snaps back, the play comes down.
- Two more icons mean the same bet is also on Positive EV, or has a Sharp Money signal on that side.
Early, Standard and Strong
Every play carries a label:
- Early: FanDuel moved a player prop on its own, by less than 2.5 points, and no second sharp book has confirmed it yet. FanDuel's small prop moves often snap back, so these start as Early. When there's enough history, the play shows a snap-back rate: how often moves like this went back over the last seven days. Lower is better.
- Standard: one sharp book led a move under 3 points, and no second sharp book has confirmed it. An Early play also turns Standard once its move holds for 90 seconds.
- Strong: confirmed by a second sharp book, or a move of 3 or more points.
Open a play
Click any row to open the play in a side panel.
- The chart shows the move. Your book is the heavy line, the leader is solid, and the green wash is the edge still left. Switch the range between 15M, 30M, 1H, 6H and 1D.
- Why this play says it in plain words: which book still pays the old price, and when the leader moved. Show math unfolds the fair price, the EV and the stake.
- Odds at every book shows each book's price, with our fair price on top. Under your side, each book shows its state: Leader (or Moved first in a wide panel), Confirmed, Followed, Old with the edge you'd still get, or Under floor when it's still old but the edge is too small to count. The footer counts how many are still old.
- If the price catches up while you're looking, a notice pins to the top and the Bet button pauses.
Bet it fast
- Press the blue Bet button in the panel. It opens the book, right to the bet slip when the book supports it.
- You can skip the panel too. The blue price button in Where to bet takes you straight to that book. If a few books share the price, pick one from the menu that pops up.
- The bet slip icon tracks the bet in My Bets, already filled in with the book, price and stake.
- With a play open, J and K (or the arrow keys) step through plays. Enter opens the bet at the book, P pins it, and Esc closes.
Views, pins and actions
- Switch from Table to Cards if you prefer tiles. Filters also holds the view settings: row spacing, columns, the range the chart opens on, and your bankroll. Leave the bankroll blank to use your Positive EV bankroll.
- Hover a row and click the tack to pin it. Up to three pinned plays stay at the top and never re-sort.
- Right-click a row to track it, view line movement, open the game page, or hide it for 24 hours.
- Turn Auto off to hold the list still. New plays wait in a counter until you click Show.
- Filters narrows the feed by EV, move size, odds range, how recently the sharp book moved, market type, label, which sharp books can start a play, and your books. Filters are saved to your account.
The Record
Open the Record tab to see how the plays have done.
The headline grades each play's first alert against Pinnacle's closing price, with its margin taken out. Beat the close is how often the entry price was better than that fair close. A coin flip would be 50%.
Below the headline, one chart compares First Move's price with the same bet at the average book and with a typical −110 bettor, and a grid shows where it works by league and market. It measures the price you got, not whether the bet won. Every figure shows its sample size as n, and grades update all day as games close. Break the Record down by label; by league, market and the sharp book that moved first; and by the book you'd actually bet at. Match my filters grades only the plays that met your min EV, odds range and min move when the alert fired. Your sports, books and label filters aren't applied. New to closing line value? Read what CLV is.
Plans
First Move is part of the Pro plan, along with Sharp Money and Parlay Builder. Eligible accounts can try Pro free for 7 days.