NFL Top Props: ranked props with the why on the card

You asked for NFL to look like college football. It does now. Open NFL Top Props under Research → NFL, and every prop on the slate carries a 0–100 score with the reasons behind it.

What the score is

The score blends four things you would otherwise check one by one:

• Hit rate vs the line over the last ten games, weighted by how comfortably the player cleared it. Clearing by 40 yards is not the same as squeaking by 2.

• Defense vs position for this prop category, using the current season as soon as a defense has played a game. No more ranking a September matchup on last year's roster.

• Line value against the best available price, measured against the fair price across every book posting the prop.

• Game environment from the spread and total, with a penalty for volume props in games the market expects to be one-sided.

Tap any row to open the breakdown: each component, the recent games, the prices behind the line-value read, and the spread and total that set the environment.

What is NFL-specific

• Proj. A model mean for the window, with the model's chance of clearing the line on the side you have selected. It comes from a separate research model and is shown for context. It does not move the score until it is calibrated, and it says so.

• Injuries. A player listed Out or on injured reserve comes off the ranking. Doubtful players stay, with reduced confidence.

• Team changes. A player in a new offense is flagged, and his score is held until he has games with the new team.

• Live prices. Every row tracks the books while you work. When no book still posts the row's line, the row says so instead of showing a price for a different number.

• Every market. Full-game passing, rushing and receiving props plus quarter and half markets, all in one dropdown.

On mobile

Cards tap open, the prop reads on one line, and the stats sit in an even grid so nothing gets squeezed at phone width.

What is next

The score is a beta. The weights are launch defaults and the projection is uncalibrated; both get refit against results as the season accumulates. The Touchdown Finder remains the place for scoring markets.

Open NFL Top Props or read how to use it.